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Georgia might have made a huge strategic mistake thinking to be able to quickly take back the control of its province, South Ossetia, just under the eyes of Russia, deem the analysts specialized in Caucasia’s problems.

If this is right that Ossetia separatists backed up by Russia have first provoked Georgia’s attack, the latter still remains based on the wrong certainty of being capable of winning a Blitzkrieg victory over their enemy.

“Georgians have played their advantage and have lost,” considers Michael Denison, specialist of the Region in the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House. “This was not an unreasonable calculation to hope a quickly victory, but it turned out to be wrong.”

Georgia, whose several regions remain unsubdued, succeeded these last years in suppressing revolts on its ground, including in the Kodori Valley and in Adjara, without provoking any Russian reaction.
Georgia probably thought that, with Moscow’s change of direction and the beginning of the Olympic Games in Beijing, it could also get an easy success in South Ossetia with low losses.

Apparently, Georgians may have reckoned that one part of the population would run away toward North Ossetia (Russia’s property), whereas the other part would stay, solving right away the problem.
Unfortunately Russia responded, and even pretty much harshly… “ South Ossetia will never be integrated into Georgia. As it is, now they are looking at being a small outpost on the southern reaches of Russia,” said Russia’s prime minister Vladimir Poutine.